In this analysis, Samuel Foucher (“Khebab”) and I (Tony Eriksen or “ace”) present an update of Wikipedia Megaprojects data. We also provide forecasts of future oil production, reflecting the Megaprojects data. The IEA uses megaprojects in its analysis and we reconcile our Megaprojects information to the data they provide in their report.

A wide variety of methods can be used to forecast future oil production. Each will provide different indications. Sam and I each make projections with megaprojects data, using somewhat different methods. Sam’s projections are shown in Figure 6. My forecasts are shown in Figures 8, 9, and 10. Despite our differing methods, the indications we produce are all substantially lower than the indications of the IEA.

Until quality data about production history, reserves and future development plans including capacities are obtained for fields in secretive OPEC countries, forecasts beyond 2012 are highly uncertain, regardless of the source. While quality data remain unavailable, the world's future energy security, in particular liquid fuels supply security, remains an extremely high risk.

This chart shows the IEA WEO 2008 forecast together with Sam's forecast derived from using Megaprojects sanctioned capacities and yet to be sanctioned capacities (including yet to find oil - YTF). By 2020, the IEA's forecast is significantly greater than Sam's forecast.