The following is a post by both Dr. Charles Hall and EROI Guy. Most of the material comes from a recently published book chapter titled “Peak oil, EROI, investments and the economy in an uncertain future.” The book can be found here. Dr. Charles Hall is a professor of Systems Ecology at the College of Environmental Science and Forestry in Syracuse, New York, and has written about energy issues many times on The Oil Drum, found here.

This guest post first ran over 2 years ago, in November 2006. How time flies...It's intent is not prescriptive but as a thought experiment to think what our situation might look like from a different (alien) perspective.

This is a guest post from First Talosian, the senior member of the planetary expedition force from Talos. I am posting the correspondence as we received it, unedited. (there are spelling and grammatical errors). In it he describes his culture's perspectives on Earth's history and future with particular emphasis on our energy and ecological intersections. The graphics were added by me after reading his letter.

First Talosian of Talos

Tasmanian Greens Senator Christine Milne made a good speech in the Senate this week about infrastructure spending and how we can solve peak oil, global warming and energy security issues in one go by shifting to an expanded, smarter grid with large scale renewable generation - and at the same time address the problem of our economic dependence on fossil fuels, which becomes ever more risky to our economic well-being as time passes by.

From Hansard (PDF - starting at p38):

I rise today to support the Nation-building Funds Bill 2008 and cognate bills. It has been apparent for some time that Australia desperately needs to invest in infrastructure, and there has been a dearth of that in the last 10 years of the Howard government. There has also been in that time incredible pork-barrelling and failure of many of the public-private partnerships, which delivered us some white elephants around the country that the community is going to long live to regret. We have now a coincidence of a global financial crisis and the climate crisis. Indeed, we have peak oil as well.

In this analysis, Samuel Foucher (“Khebab”) and I (Tony Eriksen or “ace”) present an update of Wikipedia Megaprojects data. We also provide forecasts of future oil production, reflecting the Megaprojects data. The IEA uses megaprojects in its analysis and we reconcile our Megaprojects information to the data they provide in their report.

A wide variety of methods can be used to forecast future oil production. Each will provide different indications. Sam and I each make projections with megaprojects data, using somewhat different methods. Sam’s projections are shown in Figure 6. My forecasts are shown in Figures 8, 9, and 10. Despite our differing methods, the indications we produce are all substantially lower than the indications of the IEA.

Until quality data about production history, reserves and future development plans including capacities are obtained for fields in secretive OPEC countries, forecasts beyond 2012 are highly uncertain, regardless of the source. While quality data remain unavailable, the world's future energy security, in particular liquid fuels supply security, remains an extremely high risk.

This chart shows the IEA WEO 2008 forecast together with Sam's forecast derived from using Megaprojects sanctioned capacities and yet to be sanctioned capacities (including yet to find oil - YTF). By 2020, the IEA's forecast is significantly greater than Sam's forecast.